A State Of The Union In Three Forms

Depending on when you're reading this, POTUS 46 will either be delivering the speech on Tuesday, March 1 or has already done so. Regardless, I'd like to share briefly three examples to help you gauge and measure our current moment under broadly similar conditions. The examples fit around a set of criteria. 1) a major European war is happening; 2) Americans know it, with a meaningful percentage … [Read more...]

TTP Working Paper: 60 Days Out

60 days from now, on November 3, the American presidency will be decided. Or at least that's when most Americans who vote go to the polls, do whatever ritual of choice and choosing in their heads, and cast their ballot. As of this writing, 60 days from now the time of decision begins. Seems like a good time to bring back the yardstick! Yes, I'm referring to the research and analysis I've done … [Read more...]

TTP: A 9 POTUS Checklist for the 2020 Election: Part III, Just The Numbers

The past illuminates the relationship between today and the future. Our present is on a course, maybe a crash-course it sometimes feels, with a specific date in the future. I'm referring to Tuesday, November 3, the date of the 2020 presidential election. I've researched the past of the American presidency using a three-part criteria. Here it is: 1) presidents have won election to a first-term; … [Read more...]

TTP: A 9 POTUS Checklist for the 2020 Presidential Election, Part II

So, from Part I of my series, you now know that 9 POTUSes won and completed a first presidential term, won their party's nomination for re-election, but lost in the election for a second term in the White House. Also, you have the six-item checklist to use in gauging whether or not we'll add the 10th POTUS to the group in November 2020. To refresh your recall of Part I, CLICK HERE. For you … [Read more...]

TTP: A 9 POTUS Checklist for the 2020 Presidential Election, Part I

I'd like to offer you a free gift before the 2020 presidential election hits you in full force. No, not steak knives or diet food or some type of weird enhancement. I'm referring to a tool of sorts. You're going to need it because the media coverage between now and November will be unlike anything you've experienced before. You'll be reaching for ear plugs, sleep masks, and anything else that will … [Read more...]

TTP: Measuring Shadows

The magic number is 9. That's how many US Presidents have won a first-term in the White House, secured their party's nomination for a second-term, but failed to win re-election. To refresh your memory, here are the 9, starting with the most recent and moving backward: George HW Bush; Jimmy Carter; Herbert Hoover; William Taft; Benjamin Harrison; Grover Cleveland; Martin Van Buren; John Quincy … [Read more...]

TTP: Taking A Pick-Axe To Nine American Presidents

A vein of resources lies buried in the past. With my pick-axe in hand, I mined for answers to a particular question: What does the past say about POTUS 45, Donald J. Trump, winning re-election as president in 2020? I explored the stories of nine American presidents. Each of them sought re-election to a second consecutive term in the White House. Each won their party's nomination but lost on … [Read more...]