THE RUN-UP YARDSTICK

AMERICAN INSIGHTS FROM 1917, 1941, AND THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS OF 2022

This document supplements my Facebook Live show that I broadcast during the week of March 14, 2022. I shared in the show those aspects of American entry into World War I (April 1917) and World War II (December 1941) that struck me as useful in 2022 as the Ukrainian crisis continues to unfold as a potential World War III. My purpose in doing so was yet another use of my “Yardstick” method, whereby I offer insights that help you as a citizen measure how close or how far we are in seeing our version of a previous historical trend or event. It’s context and perspective.

You may recall that I used the Yardstick in measuring the 2020 election against those nine American presidents who had won a first term, won re-nomination to a second term, but failed to win re-election later in the general election (nine POTUSes met the criteria at that point; now we have a tenth).

Again, my purpose in the Yardstick is not to advocate or to predict but rather to forge a tool that you can quietly employ for yourself amid the noise and fury of today’s media environment.

In researching for the Run-Up Yardstick (drawn from the phrase “run-up”, or leading up to a particular event), I found six points that deserve attention. It’s critical that you keep in mind each of these six points represent a shift toward direct American involvement, American participation, and American entry into the “world war.” Below, I’ll offer each point, provide a quick amplification, and suggest a few questions to help apply the point. Using the six-point Run-Up Yardstick, you make the final call as to how close or how far World War III is from 2022.

These six points comprise my Run-Up Yardstick.

Point #1: A reason emerges that drives and justifies the American insertion into the world war.

• The reason will have two visible parts. One will be geo-strategic and the other will be moral, emotive, and idealistic.

• The latter (the moral, etc) will likely be the most highly charged and explosive.

• This two-part reason will depict ourselves (and our allies) on a totally opposite trajectory from our enemies. The oppositional nature of the trajectory will be unmistakable, drawn with bold lines and bright colors.

Question: have you heard such a reason?

Point #2: Declarations by POTUS and others aligned with POTUS made prior to entry are completely reversible.

• In real-time and as they occur, any particular declaration, pronouncement, or proclamation should be understood as hollow or centrally unsolid, lacking a core and thus subject to change and replacement with relative ease and swiftness.

• Having occurred more than once, these official statements will have a trail and pattern that can be traced. The tracing will show a direction toward the point of reversal and entry.

• Look for the place at which the greatest strain exists between the current statement and the previous statement. The tie and the tether will be stretched to a breaking point.

Question: have reversals occurred and do they have a direction?

Point #3: The outcome of reversibility fits rapidly into a “what-actually-is” condition in the here-and-now.

• The entry (and the reversal it required, as cited above) will immediately have a clear connection to other things, be it policies, situations, goals, moods, and so on. To most people, it will appear to make complete and perfect sense regardless of how drastic the reversal was.

• It will feel to be a natural culmination and accumulation of recent latent events and lapsed time. This is where the walls of inevitability will begin to form, invisibly at first and then more tangibly later on.

Question: would current conditions fit smoothly around entry?

Point #4: Forms of preparation will be observable.

• The signs will be known. Legislation will be enacted that involves a build-up of materials and produced items.

• Also known will be the signs of leadership. Individual people will emerge as especially clear-minded, steady, and confident.

• Discussions of human capital will be part of public dialogue for those who pay close attention. Such discussions may result in only minor modifications of existing structures (all-volunteer, for example) or they may go much further to include substantial adjustments (hybrid volunteer and conscript). Assume that nothing is unthinkable or unimaginable.

Question: what is the latest preparation you’re aware of?

Point #5: Conditions over there worsen.

• Combat and the combatants produce yet more mayhem and chaos. This includes the definition of these terms as those never regarded as combatants enter the fray, while actions never regarded as combat become the subject of plans and operations.

• Stalemate becomes the defined condition combined with the specter of defeat looming in the not-so-distant future.

• The worsening is transmitted by the 24-hour, world-wide, digitized screen exposure of the condition.

Question: have these conditions improved or worsened?

Point #6: Key, ground-changing decisions are made by others not in or of the United States.

• The decisions will be done by formal entities (governments, militaries, sub-compartments within either, and so on) taking a significantly further step.

• The decisions do not have to include the US in their composition but they will include assumptions about the US in timing, execution, and impact.

• These decisions will produce a subsequent set of assumptions on the part of US formal entities. This back-and-forth will closely relate Point #3 above, igniting a spiraling or spinning effect to events.

Question: what was the most recent decision made “over-there” that affected the US and changed its course of approach?

To conclude, I invite you to use the six-point Yardstick to measure events over a period of time. Which of the Points shows us closest to them? Furthest away? Where have we moved the most, whether shifting from furthest to closet or closet to furthest?

Next time, I’ll elaborate on American uniqueness in 2022 and how they affect the Yardstick drawn from 1917 and 1941.

Thank you for reading. As always, I invite you to reach out via email dan@historicalsolutions.com or text/call 317-407-3687 if you’d like to discuss.