Of Gaps and Horses

Well, the national horse race that is the American presidential election is nearing the finish line. I ask your indulgence on a final few thoughts. I'll start with 1912. When you look at Woodrow Wilson victory in the electoral college, it was a large span of victory. That span masked an underlying point of divergence from appearances--the opposition was deeply split. I think the same thing … [Read more...]

1+2

From strictly a horse-race perspective, here are a few of my near-final thoughts on the 2016 presidential election. First, as with so many other presidential elections, the basic fact that produces an outcome is turn-out. My gut tells me a lower turn-out favors Trump, a higher favors Clinton. But there's another pair of numbers that I think will matter, too. I'm referring to the pairing of … [Read more...]

The World After Brexit

Seem familiar? No, it's not a strange photo of Donald Trump. It's a picture of Boris Johnson, one of the main leaders of Brexit. Johnson shocked the British political world by announcing that he would not seek the post of Prime Minister. His announcement is the latest moment of upheaval that is measured almost in quarter-hour increments. You can't keep up. I have not written anything here about … [Read more...]

Water Tides

Like the currents and tides, events flow back and forth between the US and Europe on one hand and between the US and Asia on the other. As we move into the nominee/nomination phase of the American presidential campaign, I urge you to remember this. We saw this happen last summer with the radical Islamic attacks in Paris. I suspect we may see it again as the story solidifies of what happened to the … [Read more...]