Hillary Clinton and the Ghost of Russia

Recall for a moment the aftermath of the end of the Cold War. One of the effects of the Soviet Union losing the Cold War was that it killed a longstanding enemy of the United States. I suspect the defeat of Hillary Clinton will act the same way for the Republican Party. The Soviet Union's death removed a unifying element that was a strong reason the US had a broad consensus internally on … [Read more...]

Of Gaps and Horses

Well, the national horse race that is the American presidential election is nearing the finish line. I ask your indulgence on a final few thoughts. I'll start with 1912. When you look at Woodrow Wilson victory in the electoral college, it was a large span of victory. That span masked an underlying point of divergence from appearances--the opposition was deeply split. I think the same thing … [Read more...]

1+2

From strictly a horse-race perspective, here are a few of my near-final thoughts on the 2016 presidential election. First, as with so many other presidential elections, the basic fact that produces an outcome is turn-out. My gut tells me a lower turn-out favors Trump, a higher favors Clinton. But there's another pair of numbers that I think will matter, too. I'm referring to the pairing of … [Read more...]

Post-Election 2016 & Your Leadership

POST-ELECTION 2016 & YOUR LEADERSHIP Regardless of how the US presidential election turns out, we are in for a tumultuous stretch of time moving into 2017-2018. To most of us, it may feel rather like the biker in the photo. Recently, I conducted a special seminar on the 2016 election and an earlier presidential contest that I think offers some clarifying points for the road ahead. I believe … [Read more...]

Learning From 56 Years Ago

Heading into Monday's presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, I recommend a look back at the only other televised presidential debate to rival this one in importance and impact--I'm referring to 1960 and the Nixon-Kennedy debate. There is something to learn here that affects your viewing on Monday night. First, like now, there was a powerful sense of old and new. These … [Read more...]

A Past Slice For Today

This is a 20 dollar gold piece from, you guessed it, 1854. You were doing one if you had these in your pocket. Let's take a slice from it for our use today, in 2016. In trying to sort through the confusion and strangeness of the 2106 presidential campaign, I've been thinking about an earlier time when the American political party system exploded. That was in 1854, the same year that freshly … [Read more...]

The Messed-Up Factor

Know who this is? Of course you don't. I wouldn't if I hadn't searched it out and posted it here. This is Chester Arthur, obscure President of the United States from the early 1880s. He is Exhibit A is what I'm calling my Messed-Up Factor. Part of the problem we're grappling with in the 2016 presidential election is the Messed-Up Factor. You see, we're to blame not because we're active or … [Read more...]

The Immediate Threat To Hillary Clinton: Not Trump

The politicians responsible for the resignation of Richard Nixon in August 1974 weren't from the Democratic Party. The ones who succeeded in removing Nixon were, like him, Republicans. This is a group of Republican senators who had just finished meeting with Nixon and had urged him to resign. Nixon complied. I offer this in light of the 2016 presidential campaign. Hillary Clinton's most … [Read more...]

Water Tides

Like the currents and tides, events flow back and forth between the US and Europe on one hand and between the US and Asia on the other. As we move into the nominee/nomination phase of the American presidential campaign, I urge you to remember this. We saw this happen last summer with the radical Islamic attacks in Paris. I suspect we may see it again as the story solidifies of what happened to the … [Read more...]

The Ripples of Beer

I make history. That's not an egotistical statement. I literally make history--I write stories about the past. As some of you know, I talk about history being a partial reconstruction of the total past. So, in that use of phrasing, I make history. Let me give you a brief look into how I would make part of the history of the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump, and Hillary Clinton. In my … [Read more...]