Shouldn’t do it but I will. I am. I’m thinking there are things about the near-term future that we can know with confidence.

First, a deal will be made to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. That deal will have forms of increased revenue.

Second, a pledge of spending reductions will be made. It will not be finalized, not be actualized. It will be promised.

Third, an element of public mood will improve as the presidential inauguration nears. The brightness of this mood will be intensified by media coverage of the inauguration itself. The president’s speech will be hailed as historic, even Lincolnesque in the context of second terms of office.

Fourth, economic improvement will be slightly upward into the late winter of the new year. Improvement will be measurable but not significant.

Fifth, the pressure of a major international incident–one which could unfold into a longer period of time, or an event–will continue to build.

I’m done.